Direct Flights from ARN-SFO, What's the Fuss?

Funnily enough, my last piece of investigative journalism was inspired by Erik Lindblad. And guess what? He's inspired my once again, except this time, it's about a problem which nearly every Swede in the start-up space complains about.

What is that exactly? It's that there's no direct flight from Stockholm to San Fransisco. Sure, you can connect in Copenhagen, London or Amsterdam, but nobody likes a long-haul connection (especially the Americans).

Below, you can see the original post by Inception Fund's Lindblad. Not only did it go viral, it struck a cord with some iconic names within the start-up world beyond Sweden.

Wait, Norwegian used to operate it! Tell me more...

While the post makes the desire for an ARN-SFO direct route look recent, this dialogue has been ongoing since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Norwegian flew low-cost, direct flights from Stockholm to San Fransisco for 6 years (2014 to 2020). Believe it or not, they operated the flights twice a week with the cheapest fares being just over $200 one-way!

Speaking to easyJet's Tony Anderson, his understanding was that "Stockholm's population is pretty small for a capital city. Long haul is a different world."

Was it demand that made Norwegian stop the service? Short answer, no. Nowegian was just unlucky.

The flight was on a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner (enough space for around 250 passengers) taking around 11 hours each way. It's clear that the route was loved as, despite many knock-backs, it stood strong for many years.

BAM! Nail one was in June 2016 where its Rolls-Royce engines had a pretty big issue: its immediate pressure turbine blades suffered from chemical corrosion.

BAM x2! The second nail was held in November 2017 where Swedish parliament voted for aviation tax to be introduced in April 2018. For a low-cost airline, facing an additional fee of 400 kr per passenger is a nightmare!

BAM x3! Also in April 2018, the third nail... Norwegian had to ground its Boeing 787-8s, owning roughly 15 of the 30+ affected aircrafts. Restrictions were set that, until its engine problems were fixed, its routes must always be within one hour of an airport to emergency land at; For an 11+ hour flight, this meant it was impossible to fly to San Fransisco.

BAM x4! Fourth nail was in February 2019, Norwegian announced that its losses were nearly $200m in 2018 and that "we are shifting from growth mode to profitability mode." While non-core routes were cut, the direct fight from Stockholm to San Fransisco stayed.

BAM x5! The fifth nail was March 2019 after the Boeing 737 MAX crash in Ethiopia, 18 of Norwegian's planes were grounded. Although short-haul, it hit Norwegian quite badly after they had to charter planes. CEO Bjørn Kjos essentially said that this ruined their plan to return to profitability, then cut Ireland-US flights.

BAM x6 - FINAL NAIL!! Norwegian's bet to see whether removing Ireland-US flights would improve profitability paid off. Having had a very tough 6 years and with COVID-19 on the horizon, it cut ALL Stockholm and Copenhagen's long-haul flights to make Oslo its base.

Things are happening! Are the rumours true that SAS will offer a direct flight from Stockholm to San Fransisco?

Informed by Simon Posluk, there was a late-January meetup with Transportstyrelsen (the Swedish transport agency), Business Sweden, Visit Sweden and Swedavia.

This very special meeting, or so we hope, was to discuss the Swedish government's desire "to strengthen Stockholm Arlanda Airport's competitiveness and attract more new international routes."

We've seen the situation with Norwegian, United Airlines has ended its 20 years of ARN-EWR (New York) flights after steep competition with SAS, and how SAS left Star Alliance for SkyTeam. If anyone would offer such a flight, it would have to be either SAS or Delta.

As of now, you can fly directly from Stockholm to Miami and New York (thanks Jan Carlzon!). One issue that existed was direct flights from Stockholm to Thailand back when SAS was in Star Alliance, so SAS did a joint venture with Thai Airways. Could we see something similar with Delta-SAS?

If you're praying that ARN-SFO was mentioned in that meeting, those prayers might've been answered, as Business Sweden's U.S. Head of Invest Andreas Netz emphasises the issue.

"Have been living here [San Fransisco] for almost 3 years and it's an issue," says Netz. "The impressive Swedish ecosystem makes it worthwhile. But come on, we need a direct flight."

The taxes, the taxes! Oh, make it stop.

Okay... I'm not saying that I hate taxes, nor believe that taxation isn't a useful method. In fact, the April 2018 aviation tax was incredibly successful at reducing flights from Stockholm.

Does the Swedish government regret the tax? Maybe. Has it ceased to exist since 2025? That's correct.

Partner at Luminar Ventures Reid Jackson shared, "it's shocking that Sweden has allowed its international flight connections to degrade so badly." While the current government hears this concern, I do agree "politicians don't seem too bothered by how much it is costing the economy."

If Silicon Valhalla has two massive supporters, it's certainly Ida Hansson Brusewitz and I. But as much as I hate to admit it, I do agree with Jackson's statement that "it's very hard to call ourselves 'Europe's top tech hub' without direct flights to SFO."

It leaves us with the question, especially after Lovable's success, is demand really the issue here? It appears that SAS' biggest concern is not Swedes going to San Fransisco, it's Americans coming to Stockholm.

Fredrik Hjelm shared 5 months ago that his flight from Copenhagen to San Fransisco was filled with Swedish tech workers. Turns out, it was mostly employees from Sana Labs likely in final due diligence with Workday ahead of their acquisition.

This is exactly the demand pattern SAS would require to operate a viable service from Stockholm to San Fransisco: high-value Swedish corporate traffic such as what was seen with Sana Labs. Before launching such a route, SAS would need a guarantee that operating ARN-SFO would increase Swedish-American business and fill their A350s.

SkyTeam, I love you but sometimes you suck.

You heard what I said. Maybe it's harsh, but it's important to hold the companies you love to high standards. Thankfully I have a boyfriend, otherwise I would've sounded like a complete loner with that!

Anyway...

Speaking to Founder Olle Söderlund, "for me, who comes from Malmö (Copenhagen), has lived in Paris and previously flown from there, it is also a shock that Stockholm does not have as established and direct connections."

SkyTeam has repeatedly stated that they're pushing Copenhagen airport to be SAS' primary hub. No hate to the Danes (or those from Skåne), but if people prefer Stockholm, it would make things awkward with SAS' brand positioning. Ouch - Denmark really outsmarted Sweden by continuing its investment in SAS!

Taking Delta's case, it's highly unrealistic for an ARN-SFO flight. This is because the majority of Delta's flight to Scandinavia are via codeshares with SAS. Not only is it unlikely for Delta to offer a flight to Stockholm without SAS, San Fransisco is unfortunately United Airline's hub.

United Airlines, you're our only hope!

Would United Airlines be willing to offer direct flights from ARN-SFO? The answer is kiiiiiinda complicated.

Technically, the route could be a big success as American travel to Scandinavia had boomed. We know United Airlines stopped their direct flights from EWR to ARN because of intense competition with SAS, but critics argue that United Airlines is actually stepping away from Northern Europe.

Then again, there's no competition for a direct flight from San Fransisco to Stockholm. It doesn't exist! Their strategy from San Fransisco is mostly within Asia and Latin America... Scandinavia would complicate things, but would it be worth? Hell yes!!!

This is an updating story, please continue to check back as time goes on. We're currently in the process of interviewing industry leaders and airlines like Norwegian, SAS, United and Delta. To keep its momentum, Editor-in-Chief Daniel Alestrand has made the decision to release early.